Hillary Clinton Iowa Caucus
3 comments November 25th, 2007
The media pundits are at it again. One of several polls shows Obama ahead of Hillary Clinton by a mere 4 points in Iowa (within the margin of error), and now these experts proclaim Baracks’s ascendancy while Hillary Clinton is supposedly in trouble. The problem with this analysis is that we have all been there before.
Except in one or two recent polls, for most of the summer and fall Hillary Clinton was not leading in Iowa. Obama has been ahead of Hillary in polling data going back months. This so-called Obama surge is missing the point.
Hillary Clinton and her political gurus were always skeptical about the unpredictable and capricious Iowa caucuses. According to a memo leaked during the summer, senior advisors within the Clinton political machine actually wanted to withdraw from even participating in the Iowa caucuses. Obviously, they believed Hillary Clinton had a good chance of losing in Iowa, so they preferred to deploy their resources elsewhere. Why then did Hillary Clinton and her political team decide to participate in Iowa?
Not being privy to the inner sanctum of Hillaryland, here is my best guess. I think there are two reasons for Hillary’s participation. In the first place, by being in the Iowa caucus, she convinces her two chief Democratic opponents, Obama and Edwards, to squander much of their time and money on this small state. While this is happening, Hillary Clinton has been busy as a bee building a powerful campaign infrastructure in the key states that trumps that of Obama & Company. Hillary Clinton is focused not on Iowa, but on mega-Tuesday, February 5, when more than 20 states are conducting primaries. On that date, if not earlier, the Democratic nomination will be decided.
The second reason for running in Iowa is that Hillary Clinton probably thought it would tarnish her front-runner image to be absent from the first electoral contest of the 2008 campaign. That is probably more important as a campaign concern than the short-term and limited damage of coming in second or third, which would be made quickly irrelevant by winning in the New Hampshire primary, which follows the Iowa caucus by only a few days.
Of course, given that the race in Iowa is a dead heat at the moment, there is always the chance that Hillary Clinton will win in that state. Should that occur, it is probably all over for both Obama and Edwards.
Sheldon Filger, Author
HILLARY CLINTON NUDE
www.hillary-clinton-nude.com
